Before starting, let me restate what is said on IBGR everyday of the week. WE DO NOT ENGAGE IN POLITICS!
There are plenty of resources to pursue that important and contentious topic. It is too subjective and outside our area of expertise. We approach the topic from the perspective of economics, an area that is more objective and a topic we can speak on with some expertise. So why the disclaimer?
I need to address the recent US election and its impact on the worlds economy. Until something changes the US economy determines the general health of the world's economy.
It appears the election results will be known this week, no it hasn't been determined regardless of the reporting, when the Electoral College slate of electors are selected. Unless there is a change in the forecasted results, the United States will return to the economic policies of the Obama Administration. Since personnel is policy, here is a list of potential Biden economic advisors: Goolsbee, Yellen, Rouse, Bernstein, Boushey, Tanden, Adeyemo, and Deese. These are the same individuals that Clinton would have been selected in 2016 if she had won the election.
The emphasis on corporate tax relief and deregulation has passed. Important for the large multinationals, these actions undertaken by the Trump administration were critical to the expansion of 2016-2020. It was driven by small business; over 90% of all new jobs created were from businesses under 20 employees.
The impact in the change in focus, personnel, and policy of the new administration?
We are in the 11th year of expansion since the last recession of 2007-2008. Expansions historically runs in 8 to 12 cycles so it is obvious we are at the end. Government policy can extend an expansion or shorten a contraction but cannot change the business cycle. Unless of course you move to a socialist economic model.
The question is will the new administration extend the expansion or will increasing taxes, halting deregulation, imposing more restrictions on business activity bring it to an end? And we haven't even addressed the destruction of another forced lock down.
I will say more about it tomorrow. My closing note for the day is simple - small businesses are the canary in the mine and bird is about to have respiratory problems.
For more information check out my series on Economics for Owners, start with the first show "IN THE SHADOW OF THE WAVE - WILLIAM EASTMAN"
Thanx, see you tomorrow.