FOUNDER SERIES 10.6 - THE AUGUST ECONOMIC PULSE - WILLIAM EASTMAN

Given the 20 dimensions we measure to create an economic outlook, the change from July to August is NO CHANGE. We are awaiting two statistics, manufacturing jobs and interest rates. The Fedral reserve has already predicted a bandwidth of .5 to .65% increase by the end of August / beginning of September. If that occurs then we will have 11 nagative indicators and either 2 or 3 neutral and 6 or 7 positive.

For definitions, reference show FOUNDER SERIES: S10.2.

If forced to provide an explanation, the answer remains we are in the early stages of a recession. With the announcements by major employeers of layoffs by the end of the year and a forecasted reduction in the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index), these events will accelerate the contraction. By the end of the year the picture will be clear.

(JULY)​
Green or Positive: 7 (35%)
Black or Neutral: 2 (10%)
Red or Negative: 11 (55%)
(AUGUST)
Green or Positive: 6 (30%)
Black or Neutral: 4 (20%)
Red or Negative: 10 (50%)

EPISODE 29: Leading Economic Indicators

• Yield Curve: 2 Year 3.10, 10 year 2.73 (JULY); 2 Year 3.421, 10 Year 3.039) spread increased by .012% (AUGUST)
• Durable Goods Orders: +1.9 (JULY); +.9, decrease of 1% (AUGUST)
• Stock Market: +9.22% (JULY); -1.95, a decrease 11.12% (AUGUST)
• Manufacuring Jobs: +30,000 (JULY); not available
• Building Permits: 1690 (neutral) (JULY); decreased by -1.3% (AUGUST)

EPISODE 30: Real-Time (Coincident) Indicators

• Manufacturing Activity: 52.2 (JULY); 51.3, decreased by .9 (AUGUST)
• Short-Term Interest Rates: 2.37% (JULY); not available, expected .5 - .75% increase ( AUGUST)
• Inflation: 9.1% (JULY); 8.5%, decrease of .6% (AUGUST)

EPISODE 31: Trailing (Lagging) Indicators

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP): - Q1: -1.6, Q2 -.9 (JULY); not available until October
• Unemployment Rate : 3.6%, Labor Utilization Rate: 62.1% (JULY); not available (AUGUST)
• Balance of Trade: $79.6 billion (improving) (JULY); not available (AUGUST)

EPISODE 32: Taking the Economys Pulse

• PPI (Producer Price Index): 11.3% (JULY); 9.8%, decrease of 1.5 (AUGUST)
• CPI (Consumer Price Index): 9.1% (JULY);  8.5%, decrease of .6% (AUGUST)
• CCI (Cusumer Confidence Index): 51.5 (JULY); 55.1, increase of 3.5 (AUGUST)
• Interest Rate: 2.37% (raise 5 times since March - .25, .5, .75, .75, .75 = 3%) (JULY); not available, expected .5 - .75% (AUGUST)
• Energy
  • ​Natural Gas: 11% (JULY); 7% increase fromJuy, 14 year high (AUGUST)
  • Gasoline: $4.66 (down .40/gallon) (JULY); $3.99, decrease of $.67 (AUGUST)
  • Diesel: $5.49 (down .06/gallon) (JULY); $4.91, decrease of $.58 (AUGUST)
  • Coal: .89% (JULY); 3% increase (AUGUST)

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