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NEO WORLD BIZ ECON SHOW 9: THE BUSINESS CYCLE MOVES INTO A NEGATIVE BUBBLE - WILLIAM EASTMAN

6/12/2021

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Before we rock and roll into today's show, I will back track a few weeks to create a context. Two weeks ago:
  • NEO WORLD BIZ ECON SHOW 7: EMBRACING THE OBVIOUS BUILDS STRENGTH - WILLIAM EASTMAN
where we discussed what are the moves that a business needs to make to stay ahead of an economic downturn. Last week we took the pulse of the current globally economy with a focus on the United States. Unfortunately for the world when the United States sneezes the world gets a cold.
  • NEO WORLD BIZ ECON SHOW 8: GLOBAL & DOMESTIC ECONOMIC UPDATE NOVEMBER 2021 - WILLIAM EASTMAN

Now for today's show

EPISODE 33: THE ROLE OF EMOTION IN THE BUSINESS CYCLE
Any analysis of how people make decisions usually has three components: Decision Models, Immediate Emotions, and External Forces. Most economic models are based on people making a rational choice that is in their own best interest - however they personally define it. This is the challenge of economics because reality is much different.

Topics:
  • Logical decision making with emotional justification or the inverse?
  • Herd mentality - buy low & sell high

​EPISODE 34: WHAT IS A NEGATIVE BUBBLE
Most people haven't heard of negative bubbles, the literature and talking heads on TV just refer to it as just a bubble. So what is a bubble?

Bubbles occur when prices rise for a specific item far above its real value. There are two reasons this happens. First is the natural cycle of supply and demand. When demand exceeds supply it drives up prices and soon the item is over priced which the market will eventually resolve - it's call a contraction. The other reason is when the government intervenes in the market affecting pricing. Either way the market is send signals to make more or jump into a new market and because of the time lag soon it is not sustainable.

Topics:
  • Positive Bubble
  • Negative Bubble

​EPISODE 35: WHAT HAPPENS IN A NEGATIVE BUBBLE
All of the indicators used to determine economic activity are negative: PPI, CPI, CCI, GDP, open positions vs unemployed, the labor utilization rate,, Balance of Trade. But it is more than the indicators are down, it is the slope of line. What you see is the decline accelerating. In stock market terms - PANIC!

Topics:
  • Have you protected your business?
  • NEO WORLD BIZ ECON SHOW 5: ITS BEEN FUN & CRAZY HOT - WILLIAM EASTMAN
  • NEO WORLD BIZ ECON SHOW 6: PEERING OVER THE EDGE OF THE COMING CONTRACTION - WILLIAM EASTMAN

​EPISODE 36: WHAT ARE THE SMART BUSINESS DECISIONS NOW
The previous episode (35) is the first and second steps to build at least a robust operation - you can survive the contraction. Now it is time to become antifragile - an organization that benefits from the disruption that surrounds you and build a better business.

Topics:
  • Further lean up your processes - the skeleton necessary to stay in business
  • Keep the remaining core team employed
  • Co-develop with your customers (current and former) to create an enhancement or a redesign of your offer.

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        • William Eastman
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        • Bob DiGiacomo
        • Crystal Y. Davis
        • Bill Kelly
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        • Ramdas Shenoyy
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