SEASON 11 EPISODES 21-24:What is Going On?

Today we are taking a break from interviews and focusing on the global economy. Once a month we stop and look at what is going on - to borrow the song title from Marvin Gaye.

Although today's show is a lesson about monetary policy in the United States, the example works for almost every country in the world.

As the world becomes more interconnected, the same philosophy drives decision making in London, Brussels, and Beijing. 

If you take every country in the world and look at monetary policy since the Great Recession of 2008-2010, they printed and added $35 trillion dollars to the global money supply and that represents 50% of the world's GDP ($85 trillion). Since the root of inflation is the over-printing of money, which devalues the purchasing power of a currency, that money must be extracted from circulation. 

Why is it a problem?

Because when you distort the value of a currency, you distort prices. If a currency is inflated, the prices of all products and services, by definition, must be increased. Since any market that operates on some market basis uses price as a signal to produce more or produce less - you create artificial stimulation. The increase in price is a signal to produce more if you are in a market or to jump into a market. This usually turns into a disaster for those companies that act on price signals - and we all do.

This sounds complicated, but it really isn’t.

EPISODE 21: Our Distorted Economy
The essence of the problem is that there are VERY TRUE market economies, economies that would be considered capitalist. Today, most economic models are a blend of capitalism, state corporatism, and modern monetary theory. This is a witch brew that will lead to economic devastation globally.

Topics:

• Will this lead to a global recession? (Destruction of the dollar as a reserve currency, high price for energy due to policy, the inability to reduce the money supply)
• How long will the recession last? (government action distorts the business cycle, 18 months at least instead 6-8 months, )
• What should governments do to solve the problem? (bring down inflation by reducing the money supply, accurately measure inflation - it is not a social construct, dealing with sovereign debt, abandon a central planning mindset)

EPISODE 22: How Do Economies Really Work
The business cycle is easy to understand. Every 8 - 12 years, an economy goes through an expansion and contraction. An expansion follows a contraction where the economy has been cleansed of bad capital or investment decisions. Consumer attitudes change from fear to exuberance. People perceive good times are back and they start buying - demand. Businesses read this shift in attitude and begin increasing production, creating new products and services - supply to meet the demand, and what is the trigger?

When demand exceeds supply, it drives up the price and invites more investments in those areas. At some point, the prices reach an equilibrium point which starts the bubble phase. Bubbles are nothing more than an overproduction of goods and services because the feedback loop is slow. By the time businesses realize they have over produced prices are already falling apart and they are stuck with inventory (labor) nobody wants and the bubble bursts.

Topics:

• The Business Cycle
• The Price Mechanism
• The Inevitability of Bubbles
• Why Bubbles Burst?

EPISODE 23: Your Business as an Asset
Regardless of your motivation for starting a business, it needs to be treated as an asset. For most entrepreneurs, it is their primary or only asset having invested their future in its success. There is an old saying in the stock market that you cannot fall in love with a stock, otherwise you will trade it when its performance demands it.

That is not true for your business. You must love it and bring passion to improving it every day or it will fail. It is not a stock to be sold!

Topics:

• Your Business - A Job or an Asset
• Invest in the Business Like an Investor
• Growth Only Comes from Productivity

EPISODE 24: How to Protect Your Most Important Asset
After surviving 4 previous recessions, we have learned there are several things you can do to not only survive, but use it to strengthen your core.

Topics:

• Cash Flow Management
• Lowest-Cost Producer
• Holding Your Best Accounts

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